ZEE's Trajectory Prediction: A Glimpse Into Aviation's Future
Archer Aviation's ZEE foundation model can predict aircraft trajectories on taxiways and runways several minutes before they happen. The company demonstrated it in live testing at Hawthorne Airport. It has also unveiled a military attack rotorcraft — Thunder — developed through its partnership with Anduril. That combination is the story of Archer's transformation: an air taxi startup that has quietly become a dual-use aerospace company, forcing the entire eVTOL industry to confront the military applications of its platforms.
The ZEE model, announced in July 2026, targets a stubborn statistic: Archer Aviation reported that runway-related incidents account for 30 to 40 percent of global aviation accidents. Controllers and flight crews currently manage over 44,000 daily flights across the National Airspace System, a cognitive load that has outpaced legacy tools. ZEE was purpose-built by Archer's AI team using a generative framework called conditional flow matching. Unlike traditional prediction models that output a single rigid path, this approach models the full distribution of possible futures (the branching choices a pilot or controller might make as conditions shift). A vision transformer trained on high-resolution satellite imagery lets the model "see" native map features: runways, taxiways, aprons. That visual grounding anchors its spatial calculations in physical reality rather than abstract coordinates.
The training corpus draws from a global network of more than six thousand ADS-B receivers, layered with air traffic control communications, aircraft state data, terrain, and weather. Archer says the model fuses these streams into a unified aviation intelligence platform. Mario Srouji, the company's VP of AI Products, described the output as a "highly accurate window into the future" that identifies path anomalies and cross-route conflicts before they develop into safety risks, giving humans the most critical asset in aviation: time to react.
Live testing is underway at Hawthorne Airport. Early results measured against real-world tracking data have been strong, and larger-scale validation is expanding. The company is now working to establish pilot programs with governments, airlines, and regulators to build the empirical foundation required for operational deployment.
The technical achievement is real. Whether it becomes a certified safety layer is a different question. Similar capabilities exist in narrower form today (airport-specific computer vision systems already deployed at major hubs, academic research on trajectory forecasting). Hector Pujadas, an industry observer tracking the advanced air mobility sector, notes that ZEE's real test will not be the demo but independent validation and regulator trust. That gap — between a strong technical showcase and a trusted, revenue-bearing product — is where comparable aviation technology efforts have historically stalled.
For the emerging eVTOL sector, the implication is clear. Operators have spent years proving airframes and pushing certification. The next competitive battleground is data and prediction. Any high-tempo air taxi network will need exactly this kind of surface and airspace awareness to operate safely at scale. Archer's bet is that owning the intelligence layer — not just the aircraft — becomes the defensible position. But ZEE is only the software edge of a larger transformation. The company is simultaneously building a physical dual-use platform: one that flies cargo, attacks targets, and manages airspace under a single corporate roof.
The Defense Pivot: Thunder and Halo Take Flight
Archer's agreement to supply its proprietary dual-use electric powertrain to Anduril Industries and EDGE Group was the first public signal that the San Jose company intended to monetize its Midnight eVTOL technology beyond urban air mobility. Seven months later, the partnership produced something more consequential than a component sale: a clean-sheet aircraft platform built from the ground up for two distinct customers at once.
On July 22, 2026, Archer and Anduril unveiled the result — Thunder for defense, Halo for commercial — at the Farnborough International Airshow where Anduril debuted the military variant. The two aircraft share the same airframe, series hybrid-electric powertrain, the two aircraft share the same airframe, series hybrid-electric powertrain, and core avionics. They differ in mission payload and software configuration. Archer said in its press release that the dual-use platform "builds on the core technologies developed and matured over the last eight years of Archer's commercial aircraft program, including aircraft design, powertrain engineering and manufacturing."
Adam Goldstein, Archer's founder and CEO, framed the leap directly: "Over the past eight years we've engineered, tested and scaled the technology this platform is built on. The powertrain, the batteries, the motors, the manufacturing. We partnered with Anduril to take all of that knowledge and build something new: a clean-sheet aircraft in a completely different class of range, speed and payload. I believe this is the most sophisticated vertical lift aircraft platform ever developed, it's exactly what our customers need."
The specifications bear out the ambition. The tiltrotor configuration and series hybrid-electric propulsion give the platform enough range for global self-deployment, or, alternatively, the entire aircraft can be packed into a standard shipping container for transport by air, road, rail, or sea. That multi-modal logistics footprint is a deliberate design choice for both commercial operators reaching remote sites and military units moving into contested theaters.
Thunder's payload flexibility is explicit. Using a main payload module and a nose payload bay, the Group 5 autonomous attack rotorcraft can carry ten air-to-ground missiles (Hellfires, JAGMs, and Barracuda-100Ms), sixteen launched effects (Altius-600), 76 rockets (70 mm), or twelve counter-UAS effectors. Anduril's own description is blunt: "GROUP 5 autonomous attack rotorcraft can carry ten air-to-ground missiles (Hellfires, JAGMs, and Halo for commercial. The two aircraft share the same airframe, series hybrid-electric powertrain, and core avionics. They differ in mission payload and software configuration.
Adam Goldstein, Archer's founder and CEO, framed the leap directly: "Over the past eight years we've engineered, tested and scaled the technology this platform is built on. The powertrain, the batteries, the motors, the manufacturing.
The specifications bear out the ambition.
Thunder's payload flexibility is explicit. Using a main payload module and a nose payload bay, the Group 5 autonomous attack rotorcraft can carry ten air-to-ground missiles (Hellfires, JAGMs, and Halo for commercial — at the Farnborough International Airshow where Anduril debuted the military variant. They differ in mission payload and software configuration.
The powertrain, the batteries, the motors, the manufacturing.
The specifications bear out the ambition.
Thunder's payload flexibility is explicit. Anduril's own description is blunt: "GROUP 5 AUTONOMOUS ATTACK ROTORCRAFT TEAMED WITH CREWED COMBAT AVIATION TO DELIVER OVERWHELMING MASS EFFECTS DEEP BEYOND THE FRONT LINES OF MANEUVER WARFARE." The platform is designed to operate alone, in swarms, or as a loyal wingman teamed with crewed aircraft such as the AH-64 Apache, effectively doubling the helicopter's available arsenal.
Halo targets a different but adjacent problem set. Archer's release lists offshore energy resupply, heavy time-sensitive freight between hubs and distribution points, humanitarian and medical cargo into disaster zones, and maritime autonomous operations. The value proposition: "Long range, high speed: Enough range to reach remote and offshore sites, with the speed available when necessary. Heavy payload: Carries what the job demands in a modular payload bay configurable per use case. Series hybrid-electric propulsion: Delivers energy efficient, low-noise flight while lowering operating cost per mission for commercial operators. Autonomous: No pilot means lower cost, no human exposure on hazardous missions and higher utilization for more missions per day per airframe. VTOL: Takes off and lands vertically for access to locations without a runway."
Satoru Nakagawa, president and CEO of Marubeni Aerospace Corporation (named as Halo's strategic launch partner) articulated the commercial logic: "Currently, even in cargo transport operations that do not require onboard crew, flights are conducted with human pilots, absorbing the cost, scheduling constraints and human exposure that come with it. Halo's unmanned, autonomous flight capabilities can address these challenges, and combined with its excellent range, payload capacity and VTOL capability, make it a highly suitable solution that we are pleased to introduce and support for our customers as a first strategic partner." Marubeni, a subsidiary of one of Japan's largest general trading companies, will conduct joint market research and use-case identification with Archer; additional commercial customers are expected to be announced later in 2026.
The production philosophy mirrors the dual-use intent. Archer said the platform behind Halo and Thunder is "designed for low-cost, high-volume production using commercial supply chains" and is "built to support broad deployment, rapid production and the scale commercial and defense markets require." That approach (leveraging automotive-grade supply chains and manufacturing processes honed on the Midnight program) is the through-line connecting Archer's air taxi origins to its defense trajectory.
A full-scale surrogate of the combined platform is under assembly, with the first prototype expected to enter testing in 2027. Neither company has published a timeline for operational deployment; Thunder's military service date remains unspecified, and Archer has not committed to a Halo operational date. But the architecture is already informing adjacent contracts: in July 2026, the U.S. Army awarded Neros Technologies a contract with a ceiling for first-person-view drones under a purpose-built program.
Boeing Deal Transforms Archer Into Dual-Use Aerospace Player
Archer's August 2026 agreement to acquire three Boeing subsidiaries — Wisk Aero, Insitu, and SkyGrid — while handing Boeing a 19.75% Class A stake and a technology-sharing arrangement, is the single transaction that converts Archer from a pre-revenue air taxi aspirant into a dual-use aerospace platform with immediate defense revenue, autonomy intellectual property, and global manufacturing reach. The deal, announced alongside Archer's Q2 results, is expected to close by year-end pending Hart-Scott-Rodino review.
Each subsidiary plugs a different gap. Wisk brings six generations of eVTOL prototypes and more than 1,700 flight tests (the only autonomy stack in the industry with that depth of certification-grade data). Insitu delivers annual revenue, 3,500-plus uncrewed aircraft systems fielded across 35 countries, and nearly two million autonomous flight hours of operational data. SkyGrid contributes aircraft-agnostic air traffic management software that, combined with Archer's ZEE model, could become what Goldstein calls a "must-have" airspace modernization product. Together they hand Archer an end-to-end physical AI platform spanning autonomous flight, airspace intelligence, and production-scale defense manufacturing.
Boeing's motivation is equally clear. CEO Kelly Ortberg, installed in August 2024, has made divesting non-core assets a centerpiece of his reset. The company sold parts of its digital aviation portfolio earlier in 2026; shedding Wisk, Insitu, and SkyGrid lets Ortberg concentrate capital and management attention on commercial airplanes, defense, and space. Boeing retains access to Wisk's core autonomy technology for its own next-generation commercial and defense programs, invests in Archer's next funding round, and holds options to purchase additional stock at a fixed price over four years. The stake was valued at announcement; Archer shares rose 12–20% on the news.
For Archer, the economics are transformative. Insitu's profitable, cash-generating business steadies a balance sheet that had burned cash for years chasing FAA certification (Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance still shows a loss). Goldstein has said the integration will not structurally increase overall cash burn. More important, Wisk's autonomy stack and Insitu's dataset accelerate the Halo/Thunder program at a fraction of the time and cost of organic development. The plan: deploy Wisk's autonomy on the Halo platform first, harden it in defense missions where certification timelines differ, then port it back to the Midnight air taxi when the FAA is ready to certify passenger-carrying autonomy.
The technology-sharing arrangement is the glue. Boeing keeps a license to Wisk's core autonomy for its own aircraft; Archer gets the talent, the test data, and the production lines. Goldstein framed it as proof of how "leaned in" Boeing is: all-stock consideration with a lockup, ongoing collaboration across multiple fronts, and committed future equity investment. The transaction also removes a potential rival — Wisk's autonomous eVTOL and SkyGrid's traffic management could have challenged piloted eVTOL operators directly — while giving Archer the option to build a transportation-as-a-service business on Wisk's TaaS model.
Regulatory clearance remains the open question. The Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period must expire or terminate; neither side has signaled antitrust concerns, but the combination of the largest U.S. defense prime with the eVTOL certification leader will draw scrutiny. If it closes on schedule, Archer enters 2027 with a defense revenue base, an autonomy stack tested in 35 countries, and a manufacturing footprint that spans California, Georgia, and Insitu's global operations (exactly the dual-use infrastructure the Anduril partnership and the ZEE model were built to exploit).
Joby Strikes Back: The Race for Defense Market Share
Within 24 hours of Archer Aviation's August 10 announcement that it would acquire three Boeing subsidiaries and secure a strategic investment from Boeing, Joby Aviation moved to acquire Resonant Sciences, a deal that signals the eVTOL sector's two front-runners are racing to establish dual-use footprints before the other. Both companies bought their way into established, revenue-generating defense businesses rather than waiting to mature their own military programs.
Joby's acquisition of Resonant Sciences was structured as cash and stock, with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2027 subject to regulatory approval. Resonant Sciences was structured as cash and stock, with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2027 subject to regulatory approval. Resonant, founded in 2015 and based in Ohio, reported trailing 12-month revenue as of August 2026, with adjusted EBITDA margins in the high teens. The company's backlog more than doubled year over year during the first half of 2026, and bookings were more than three times higher than the same period in 2025.
Resonant employs about 250 people and develops radio frequency sensing, mission systems, electronic countermeasures, communications, and low-observability technologies for U.S. national security customers. More than 90 percent of its team members hold security clearances, giving Joby immediate access to cleared personnel and facilities that the company previously lacked for classified military work. A Joby spokesperson said Resonant's cleared infrastructure would "eliminate this constraint" and position Joby as a "stronger long-term partner for L3Harris and Joby's other defense partners."
The acquisition consolidates Joby's existing defense initiatives under Resonant's leadership. J. Micah North, Resonant's co-founder and CEO, will lead the new defense business unit, which will absorb Joby's work on dual-use turbine-electric and hydrogen-electric aircraft and its autonomy technology stack. An early focus is integrating Joby's autonomy stack with Resonant's RF sensing and signal-processing capabilities to accelerate development of software-defined autonomous systems for defense customers.
Joby's defense push builds on more than a decade of work with U.S. defense and intelligence customers. Since 2016, the company has worked with the Defense Innovation Unit, and in 2020 the Air Force's AFWERX granted Joby's eVTOL aircraft its first airworthiness certification through the Agility Prime program. In 2023, Joby delivered one of its air taxis to Edwards Air Force Base for testing and base operations. The company has also partnered with L3Harris Technologies since 2025 to develop a military-specific version of its S4 aircraft with a hybrid-electric powertrain, with flight tests planned for fall 2026 and operational demonstrations targeted for 2026.
Joby CEO JoeBen Bevirt framed the acquisition as pairing "Resonant's established capabilities with Joby's globally leading aircraft propulsion technologies." North added that joining Joby gives Resonant's team access to "additional engineering depth, aircraft platforms, autonomy technology and production expertise," allowing the combined entity to pursue opportunities that neither company could address alone.
The timing of both announcements reflects a broader shift in how eVTOL developers are approaching the defense market. Joby's Blade Air Mobility acquisition last year gave it access to 12 terminals in key markets including New York City, generating a portion of the company's second-quarter 2026 revenue. But the Resonant deal goes further, establishing a dedicated defense business with classified capabilities that Joby's commercial air taxi work alone could not support.
This defensive response from Joby underscores how Archer's dual-use strategy has reshaped the competitive calculus. Where Joby had previously focused on partnerships and internal development, it now moves to acquire scale in defense manufacturing and cleared operations. The moves suggest both companies are converging on a model where the air taxi platform serves as a foundation for broader aerospace and defense applications, with the race now extending beyond certification timelines to who can field the most capable dual-use technology stack first.
Talent War Heats Up Across Two Markets
Archer's pivot to dual-use aerospace is not just a strategic repositioning; it is a hiring signal that ripples across two talent markets at once. The company's UK engineering hub in Bristol, announced in December 2025 and confirmed in February 2026, has already drawn hundreds of applications and begun onboarding engineers to support joint work with Anduril UK and GKN Aerospace on the British Army's Project NYX and the Ministry of Defence's Land Autonomous Collaborative Platform programme. "We want to hire the best engineers the UK has to offer," said Adam Goldstein, Archer's founder and CEO. "Bristol has a strong industrial base and a deep talent pool that makes that possible."
The hire that anchored the hub tells its own story. Dr. Limhi Somerville, one of Britain's most recognized eVTOL engineering leaders, joins Archer in early 2026 after leading vertical-lift programs at Vertical Aerospace. "Archer is pairing realistic innovation with the capital, manufacturing capabilities, and strategic partnerships required to actually deliver next-generation aerospace and defence technologies at scale," Somerville said. His move signals that the defense side of the dual-use equation is no longer a paper exercise; it demands the same caliber of talent that built the commercial eVTOL generation.
Anduril's hiring velocity confirms the scale. The defense prime added 281 roles in the past seven days alone, with senior positions spanning strategic supply chain, space special programs, mission systems, and software engineering leadership. Archer's own board data shows 134 salaried roles with a median salary, and three new postings in the past week including a Principal AI Research Engineer and a Principal Airframe Architect. ZipRecruiter's broader sample puts the average Archer engineer as of May 2026, but the board's salaried band reflects the senior, cleared, and specialized roles the defense pivot demands.
The talent crunch is industry-wide. As eVTOL developers move from prototype into validation and certification, demand has spiked for Flight Test Engineers, Certification Engineers, Airworthiness Specialists, and Experimental Test Pilots (roles that barely existed in civilian aviation five years ago). Software engineers, data scientists, UX designers, product managers, supply chain managers, and manufacturing engineers are all competing for the same shrinking pool. "Workforce agility has become a competitive advantage," notes one aerospace workforce analysis. "Companies that can mobilize talent quickly, stabilize operations during change, and scale production without long-term headcount risk are better positioned to meet demand and protect margins."
For Archer, the cleared talent market adds a second filter. Defense roles require security clearances that do not transfer through standard job boards; recruiters with existing cleared-candidate networks become essential. The company's liquidity cushion — record year-end cash from 2025 financing — funds the bidding war, but money alone does not clear a TS/SCI candidate in six months.
The dual-use model forces a synthesis: engineers who understand both FAA Part 23 certification and MIL-STD-810 environmental qualification, who can write DO-178C Level A code for a commercial air taxi and adapt it for a contested-environment autonomous ISR platform. Archer's Bristol hub, backed by Anduril's production scale and GKN's manufacturing base, is betting that this hybrid profile exists (and that it can be built faster in the UK's defense-cluster ecosystem than anywhere else in the West). The next six months of hiring data will show whether the bet pays.
Blurred Lines: The New Commercial-Military Frontier
The line between commercial and military aviation didn't blur overnight. It eroded over three decades of consolidation that took the United States from 51 major aerospace and defense prime contractors in the 1990s to five today. In the 30 years before the Boeing-McDonnell Douglas merger, the U.S. produced dozens of clean-slate commercial jets. In the 30 years since, it has produced precisely one large aircraft. That stagnation created the vacuum now being filled by companies like Archer, Anduril, and SpaceX (firms that build in the commercial market first, then port capabilities into defense).
The Ukraine war accelerated the collapse of that boundary. Ukrainian forces have defended against a numerically superior Russian military using commercial satellite imagery, smartphones, and small consumer drones. By March 2024, Ukraine was acquiring at least 50,000 first-person-view drones a month at a few hundred dollars each (600,000 annually). In October 2024, President Zelensky claimed the country had surpassed its 1-million-drone production target and was now capable of producing 4 million annually. Russia, meanwhile, deployed more than 1,000 Shahed long-range one-way attack drones per month from September 2024 through February 2025, hitting a single-night record of 188 on November 26. These aren't military-industrial products in the traditional sense. They're commercial tech repurposed at scale.
The Russo-Ukrainian War is likely to serve as the next major catalyst, disrupting the current evolutionary plateau in terrorist drone use. As violent extremist organizations adapt and repurpose drone innovations emerging from the conflict, the world may soon witness a new era of asymmetric warfare characterized by the widespread use of swarm tactics, FPV drone strikes, and advanced drone countermeasures.
That lesson hasn't been lost on the Pentagon. Mike Brown, the former director of the Defense Innovation Unit, found that the commercial industry already leads in 11 of 14 critical technology areas. The DoD's response: a directive to integrate commercial AI models within 30 days of public release, a Commercial Space Integration Strategy, and expanded use of Other Transaction Authority to compress procurement timelines. The Army established an Artificial Intelligence Integration Center at Carnegie Mellon University and, in December 2025, created a formal AI and machine learning officer career track. The goal is to move at the pace of commercial innovation (something the traditional prime-contractor model cannot do).
But speed introduces governance gaps. AI-driven space decisions take microseconds, which means governance structures that assume human decision-makers in the loop do not apply. The convergence of AI and space creates a double "dual-use technology" problem: commercial satellites now support military intelligence, opening new cyberattack vectors (GPS jamming in Europe, attacks on space agencies in Japan and Poland, ransomware across 25 space-sector organizations in 2024 alone). If a single entity controls both the physical infrastructure and the AI systems processing that data, nations become dependent on foreign commercial platforms for everything from agricultural monitoring to national security intelligence.
The regulatory framework hasn't caught up. Technologies with potential defense applications face export controls, licensing obligations, and national security considerations even when their primary market is civilian. Early consideration of regulatory exposure is essential, but the rules are being written in real time. The UN Office for Outer Space Affairs recommends human-in-the-loop for low-latency operations and human-on-the-loop with robust safeguards for deep-space missions. It also calls for academia to develop explainable AI standards for space-grade hardware, the private sector to incorporate decision logs and risk-based safety assessments, and UN governments to develop an international code of practice for AI in space.
The talent pipeline is cracking too. The percentage of industry job postings requiring data analysis skills is projected to rise from 9 percent in 2025 to nearly 14 percent by 2028; data science skills from 3 percent to 5 percent. The Army's AI Scholars program produces worse promotion outcomes than the force at large despite drawing its most academically competitive officers. China produces nearly twice as many science and engineering PhD graduates as the United States, and the gap is widening. The share of top AI researchers at U.S. institutions fell from 59 percent in 2019 to 42 percent in 2022, while China's share rose from 11 percent to 28 percent. This isn't merely a hiring problem; it's an industrial base problem. China doesn't need to poach American AI talent if the American military cannot retain its own, and the shortage of qualified engineers compounds every bottleneck in qualification, procurement, and integration.
The industrial base tells the same story. Persistent demand growth collides with shortages of materials, skilled labor, and geopolitical disruptions, keeping the supply chain under pressure through at least 2027. The increased production of Javelins, Stingers, and HIMARS for Ukraine has strained U.S. defense supply lines; Kyiv consumes artillery shells faster than the West's steady-state production capacity. The CHIPS and Science Act and the European Chips Act are attempts to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity, but hardware moves at the pace of software only if qualification and risk-acceptance frameworks modernize (using additive manufacturing, in-situ monitoring, and AI-driven analysis to certify parts faster without sacrificing safety).
Archer's ZEE model and its Anduril partnership sit at this intersection. The company's trajectory prediction breakthrough (demonstrated in August 2026) emerged from commercial aviation requirements but applies directly to autonomous defense platforms like Thunder and Halo. The Boeing investment adds manufacturing scale and certification experience. The pattern repeats across the sector: civil adoption generates early data, operational learning, and scale; defense demand accelerates when continuity becomes mission-critical. The strongest dual-use companies use the faster market to mature the technology, then move into the second phase with better proof and economics.
Long-term advantage will depend not on who builds the next aircraft but on who scales the enabling systems around it — who controls the architecture, the learning, the operational data, and the rights around them. Governance, certification, procurement, and integration are not secondary problems to solve after the technology is built. They are the work. The U.S. still defers near-term tactical risk in flight test, qualification, and new manufacturing methods, and in doing so "accrues massive strategic risk on the joint force" and in the American industrial base. Technology is not the limiting factor. U.S. processes, incentives, and risk tolerance are.
Archer's ZEE model already sees minutes ahead on a taxiway. Thunder's missiles already point beyond the front lines. The question is whether the rest of the industry — and the regulators, funders, and generals who depend on it — can move as fast as the technology already does. The blurred line is now the front line.
Comparable Figures Summary
| Source / Firm | Role / Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Anduril | Senior positions (salary bands) | Zero G Talent's board data shows $292,000–$386,000 |
| Archer (Board) | Median salaried role | $190,000 |
| Archer (Board) | Principal AI Research Engineer | Zero G Talent's figures put the range at $270,000–$340,000 |
| Archer (Board) | Principal Airframe Architect | Zero G Talent's data shows $242,800–$322,100 |
| ZipRecruiter | Average Archer Engineer | $88,722 |
| Neros Technologies | Contract ceiling | $500 million |
| Boeing | Digital aviation portfolio sale | $10.55 billion |
| Boeing | Investment in Archer | $55 million |
| Boeing | Options to purchase stock | $200 million |
| Archer (Stake) | Valuation | $930 million |
| Insitu | Annual revenue | Over $200 million |
| Archer | Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss | $170–200 million |
| Resonant Sciences | Acquisition price | $500 million |
| Resonant Sciences | Cash portion | $450 million |
| Resonant Sciences | Stock portion | $50 million |
| Resonant Sciences | Trailing 12-month revenue | Over $100 million |
| Blade Air Mobility | Acquisition price | About $125 million |
| Blade Air Mobility | Q2 2026 revenue | $36.2 million |
| Joby Aviation | Q2 2026 revenue | $38.6 million |
| Archer | Liquidity cushion | $2 billion |
| CHIPS and Science Act | Funding | $280 billion |
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